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BuxDu vs Respublika FA — Pro League A 2026

BuxDu
BuxDu
Preview
13:00
Respublika FA
Respublika FA
8/21/2026Pro League APro League A · Round 16
37%
BuxDu
model favours
37%26%37%
1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

BuxDu37%
×Draw26%
Respublika FA37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BuxDu
1.33
Respublika FA
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

BuxDu
1.50
Respublika FA
1.17

allows per match

BuxDu
1.50
Respublika FA
1.17

finishing

BuxDu+0.00on par
Respublika FA+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BuxDu ↓

Respublika FA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

BuxDu or draw
63%
BuxDu or Respublika FA
74%
Draw or Respublika FA
63%

Winning margin

BuxDu wins by 2+
17%
Respublika FA wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

BuxDu 1+ goals
74%
BuxDu 2+ goals
38%
BuxDu 3+ goals
15%
Respublika FA 1+ goals
74%
Respublika FA 2+ goals
38%
Respublika FA 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

BuxDu (draw refunded)
50%
Respublika FA (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BuxDu at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Respublika FA away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BuxDu attack 1.50 + Respublika FA defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.33

Respublika FA attack 1.17 + BuxDu defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

BuxDu scores more
37%
level
26%
Respublika FA scores more
37%

BuxDu at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "BuxDu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
BuxDu
WWWLD
FA
WWLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: BuxDu host Respublika FA

August 21, 2026: BuxDu take on Respublika FA in Pro League A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.