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BuxDu vs Qiziriq — Pro League A 2026

BuxDu
BuxDu
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Qiziriq
Qiziriq
M. Shamsiddinov 90'
S. Ashurov 44'
6/10/2026Pro League APro League A · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

BuxDu52%
×Draw23%
Qiziriq25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BuxDu
1.82
Qiziriq
1.18

BuxDu creates 54% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

BuxDu
1.50
Qiziriq
0.86

allows per match

BuxDu
1.50
Qiziriq
2.14

finishing

BuxDu+0.00on par
Qiziriq+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BuxDu ↓

Qiziriq →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

BuxDu or draw
75%
BuxDu or Qiziriq
77%
Draw or Qiziriq
48%

Winning margin

BuxDu wins by 2+
29%
Qiziriq wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

BuxDu 1+ goals
84%
BuxDu 2+ goals
54%
BuxDu 3+ goals
27%
Qiziriq 1+ goals
69%
Qiziriq 2+ goals
33%
Qiziriq 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

BuxDu (draw refunded)
68%
Qiziriq (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BuxDu at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Qiziriq away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BuxDu attack 1.50 + Qiziriq defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.82

Qiziriq attack 0.86 + BuxDu defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

BuxDu scores more
52%
level
23%
Qiziriq scores more
25%

BuxDu at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "BuxDu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
S. Ashurov
90'
M. Shamsiddinov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

BuxDu 2 – 0 Qiziriq

BuxDu beat Qiziriq 2-0 in Pro League A on June 10, 2026.

Goals: S. Ashurov (44'), M. Shamsiddinov (90').