Butrinti Sarandë 0–0 Tërbuni Pukë: Result & Stats

Butrinti Sarandë

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tërbuni Pukë

11/21/2021

1st Division · Round 9Stadiumi Andon Lapa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Butrinti Sarandë53%

×Draw29%

Tërbuni Pukë19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Butrinti SarandëExpected goals in this matchTërbuni Pukë

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.66

Butrinti Sarandë

1.33

Tërbuni Pukë

0.66

Butrinti Sarandë creates 102% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 39 away

1.44

creates per match

0.51

0.81

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Butrinti Sarandë

1.44

Tërbuni Pukë

0.51

allows per match

Butrinti Sarandë

0.81

Tërbuni Pukë

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Butrinti Sarandë+0.00on par

Tërbuni Pukë+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Butrinti Sarandë ↓

Tërbuni Pukë →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Butrinti Sarandë or draw

81%

Butrinti Sarandë or Tërbuni Pukë

71%

Draw or Tërbuni Pukë

47%

Winning margin

Butrinti Sarandë wins by 2+

25%

Tërbuni Pukë wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Butrinti Sarandë 1+ goals

74%

Butrinti Sarandë 2+ goals

38%

Butrinti Sarandë 3+ goals

15%

Tërbuni Pukë 1+ goals

48%

Tërbuni Pukë 2+ goals

14%

Tërbuni Pukë 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Butrinti Sarandë (draw refunded)

74%

Tërbuni Pukë (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Butrinti Sarandë at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Tërbuni Pukë away — creates 0.51, concedes 1.23 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Butrinti Sarandë attack 1.44 + Tërbuni Pukë defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.33

Tërbuni Pukë attack 0.51 + Butrinti Sarandë defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Butrinti Sarandë scores more

53%

level

29%

Tërbuni Pukë scores more

19%

Butrinti Sarandë at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Butrinti Sarandë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff