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Busoga United vs Kitara — Premier League 2019

Busoga United
Busoga United
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kitara
Kitara
1/2/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14FUFA Technical Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Busoga United37%
×Draw28%
Kitara35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Busoga United
1.17
Kitara
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 57 away

creates per match

Busoga United
0.94
Kitara
1.11

allows per match

Busoga United
1.17
Kitara
1.40

finishing

Busoga United+0.00on par
Kitara+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Busoga United ↓

Kitara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Busoga United or draw
65%
Busoga United or Kitara
72%
Draw or Kitara
63%

Winning margin

Busoga United wins by 2+
15%
Kitara wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Busoga United 1+ goals
69%
Busoga United 2+ goals
33%
Busoga United 3+ goals
11%
Kitara 1+ goals
68%
Kitara 2+ goals
32%
Kitara 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Busoga United (draw refunded)
51%
Kitara (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Busoga United at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.17 · 69 matches

Kitara away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.40 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Busoga United attack 0.94 + Kitara defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.17

Kitara attack 1.11 + Busoga United defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Busoga United scores more
37%
level
28%
Kitara scores more
35%

Busoga United at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Busoga United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Busoga United vs Kitara

Busoga United beat Kitara 2-1 in Premier League on January 2, 2024.

The match was played at FUFA Technical Centre in Njeru.