Busoga United 1–0 Express: Result & Stats

Busoga United

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Express

2/18/2022

Premier League · Round 18Kakindu Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Busoga United37%

×Draw30%

Express34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Busoga UnitedExpected goals in this matchExpress

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.05

Busoga United

1.10

Express

1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 101 away

0.94

creates per match

0.93

1.17

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Busoga United

0.94

Express

0.93

allows per match

Busoga United

1.17

Express

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Busoga United+0.00on par

Express+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Busoga United ↓

Express →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Busoga United or draw

66%

Busoga United or Express

70%

Draw or Express

63%

Winning margin

Busoga United wins by 2+

15%

Express wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Busoga United 1+ goals

67%

Busoga United 2+ goals

30%

Busoga United 3+ goals

10%

Express 1+ goals

65%

Express 2+ goals

28%

Express 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Busoga United (draw refunded)

52%

Express (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Busoga United at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.17 · 69 matches

Express away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.26 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Busoga United attack 0.94 + Express defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.10

Express attack 0.93 + Busoga United defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Busoga United scores more

37%

level

30%

Express scores more

34%

Busoga United at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Busoga United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff