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Busoga United vs BUL — Premier League 2019

Busoga United
Busoga United
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
BUL
BUL
5/18/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 30FUFA Technical Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Busoga United31%
×Draw29%
BUL39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Busoga United
1.01
BUL
1.17

BUL creates 16% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 100 away

creates per match

Busoga United
0.94
BUL
1.17

allows per match

Busoga United
1.17
BUL
1.08

finishing

Busoga United+0.00on par
BUL+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Busoga United ↓

BUL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Busoga United or draw
61%
Busoga United or BUL
71%
Draw or BUL
69%

Winning margin

Busoga United wins by 2+
12%
BUL wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Busoga United 1+ goals
64%
Busoga United 2+ goals
27%
Busoga United 3+ goals
8%
BUL 1+ goals
69%
BUL 2+ goals
33%
BUL 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Busoga United (draw refunded)
44%
BUL (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Busoga United at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.17 · 69 matches

BUL away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.08 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Busoga United attack 0.94 + BUL defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.01

BUL attack 1.17 + Busoga United defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Busoga United scores more
31%
level
29%
BUL scores more
39%

BUL at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "BUL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Busoga United 0–3 BUL

BUL beat Busoga United 3-0 in Premier League on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at FUFA Technical Centre in Njeru.