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Busan Transportation vs Suwon City FC — FA Cup 2019

Busan Transportation
Busan Transportation
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Suwon City FC
Suwon City FC
J. Rabens 47'
Jung Seung-Bae 90+6'
M. Ofkir 18'
4/16/2025FA CupFA Cup · 3rd RoundBusan Gudeok Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Busan Transportation36%
×Draw28%
Suwon City FC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Busan Transportation
1.21
Suwon City FC
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Busan Transportation
1.17
Suwon City FC
0.75

allows per match

Busan Transportation
1.67
Suwon City FC
1.25

finishing

Busan Transportation+0.00on par
Suwon City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Busan Transportation ↓

Suwon City FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Busan Transportation or draw
64%
Busan Transportation or Suwon City FC
72%
Draw or Suwon City FC
64%

Winning margin

Busan Transportation wins by 2+
15%
Suwon City FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Busan Transportation 1+ goals
70%
Busan Transportation 2+ goals
34%
Busan Transportation 3+ goals
12%
Suwon City FC 1+ goals
70%
Suwon City FC 2+ goals
34%
Suwon City FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Busan Transportation (draw refunded)
50%
Suwon City FC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Busan Transportation at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Suwon City FC away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Busan Transportation attack 1.17 + Suwon City FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Suwon City FC attack 0.75 + Busan Transportation defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Busan Transportation scores more
36%
level
28%
Suwon City FC scores more
36%

Busan Transportation at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Busan Transportation will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
M. Ofkir
47'
J. Rabens
90+6'
Jung Seung-Bae
90+8'
Jeon Jeong-ho
Busan
Suwon
Paik Ki-Hong
Manager: Paik Ki-Hong
Kim Eun-Joong
Manager: Kim Eun-Joong

Busan Transportation 1 – 2 Suwon City FC

Suwon City FC beat Busan Transportation 2-1 in FA Cup on April 16, 2025.

Goals: M. Ofkir (18'), J. Rabens (47'), Jung Seung-Bae (90+6').

The match was played at Busan Gudeok Stadium in Busan.