Busan Transportation 2–1 Namdong: Result & Stats

Busan Transportation

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Namdong

3/9/2022

FA Cup · 2nd RoundBusan Asiad Auxiliary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Busan Transportation44%

×Draw23%

Namdong33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Busan TransportationExpected goals in this matchNamdong

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.50

Busan Transportation

1.75

Namdong

1.50

Busan Transportation creates 17% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

1.17

creates per match

1.33

1.67

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Busan Transportation

1.17

Namdong

1.33

allows per match

Busan Transportation

1.67

Namdong

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Busan Transportation+0.00on par

Namdong+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Busan Transportation ↓

Namdong →

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Busan Transportation or draw

67%

Busan Transportation or Namdong

77%

Draw or Namdong

56%

Winning margin

Busan Transportation wins by 2+

23%

Namdong wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Busan Transportation 1+ goals

83%

Busan Transportation 2+ goals

52%

Busan Transportation 3+ goals

25%

Namdong 1+ goals

78%

Namdong 2+ goals

44%

Namdong 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Busan Transportation (draw refunded)

57%

Namdong (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Busan Transportation at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Namdong away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Busan Transportation attack 1.17 + Namdong defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.75

Namdong attack 1.33 + Busan Transportation defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Busan Transportation scores more

44%

level

23%

Namdong scores more

33%

Busan Transportation at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Busan Transportation will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff