Busan Transportation 3–0 Mokpo City: Result & Stats

Busan Transportation

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mokpo City

Unknown 80', 70', 64'

5/9/2026

K3 League · Round 10Busan Gudeok Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Busan Transportation42%

×Draw27%

Mokpo City30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Busan TransportationExpected goals in this matchMokpo City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.10

Busan Transportation

1.35

Mokpo City

1.10

Busan Transportation creates 23% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 112 away

1.24

creates per match

1.13

1.07

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Busan Transportation

1.24

Mokpo City

1.13

allows per match

Busan Transportation

1.07

Mokpo City

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Busan Transportation+0.00on par

Mokpo City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Busan Transportation ↓

Mokpo City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Busan Transportation or draw

70%

Busan Transportation or Mokpo City

73%

Draw or Mokpo City

58%

Winning margin

Busan Transportation wins by 2+

20%

Mokpo City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Busan Transportation 1+ goals

74%

Busan Transportation 2+ goals

39%

Busan Transportation 3+ goals

15%

Mokpo City 1+ goals

67%

Mokpo City 2+ goals

30%

Mokpo City 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Busan Transportation (draw refunded)

58%

Mokpo City (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Busan Transportation at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.07 · 108 matches

Mokpo City away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.46 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Busan Transportation attack 1.24 + Mokpo City defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.35

Mokpo City attack 1.13 + Busan Transportation defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Busan Transportation scores more

42%

level

27%

Mokpo City scores more

30%

Busan Transportation at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Busan Transportation will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

64'

70'

80'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff