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Busan I Park vs Jeonju — FA Cup 2019

Busan I Park
Busan I Park
AET
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Jeonju
Jeonju
3/27/2021FA CupFA Cup · 2nd RoundBusan Gudeok Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Busan I Park32%
×Draw20%
Jeonju47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Busan I Park
1.83
Jeonju
2.23

Jeonju creates 22% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Busan I Park
3.00
Jeonju
2.67

allows per match

Busan I Park
1.80
Jeonju
0.67

finishing

Busan I Park+0.00on par
Jeonju+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Busan I Park ↓

Jeonju →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Busan I Park or draw
53%
Busan I Park or Jeonju
80%
Draw or Jeonju
68%

Winning margin

Busan I Park wins by 2+
16%
Jeonju wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Busan I Park 1+ goals
84%
Busan I Park 2+ goals
54%
Busan I Park 3+ goals
28%
Jeonju 1+ goals
89%
Jeonju 2+ goals
65%
Jeonju 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Busan I Park (draw refunded)
41%
Jeonju (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Busan I Park at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Jeonju away — creates 2.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Busan I Park attack 3.00 + Jeonju defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Jeonju attack 2.67 + Busan I Park defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Busan I Park scores more
32%
level
20%
Jeonju scores more
47%

Jeonju at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Jeonju will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Busan I Park vs Jeonju

Busan I Park beat Jeonju 2-1 in FA Cup on March 27, 2021.

The match was played at Busan Gudeok Stadium in Busan.