Busan I Park 4–0 Geoje Citizen: Result & Stats

Busan I Park

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Geoje Citizen

Son Hwi 90+4', 90+2'

Xavier 65'

Baek Ga-On 1'

7/15/2026

FA Cup · Round of 64

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Busan I Park60%

×Draw17%

Geoje Citizen23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Busan I ParkExpected goals in this matchGeoje Citizen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.88

1.77

Busan I Park

2.88

Geoje Citizen

1.77

Busan I Park creates 63% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

3.00

creates per match

1.75

1.80

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Busan I Park

3.00

Geoje Citizen

1.75

allows per match

Busan I Park

1.80

Geoje Citizen

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Busan I Park+0.00on par

Geoje Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Busan I Park ↓

Geoje Citizen →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–03%

1–15%

1–24%

1–33%

1–41%

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Busan I Park or draw

77%

Busan I Park or Geoje Citizen

83%

Draw or Geoje Citizen

40%

Winning margin

Busan I Park wins by 2+

40%

Geoje Citizen wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Busan I Park 1+ goals

94%

Busan I Park 2+ goals

78%

Busan I Park 3+ goals

54%

Geoje Citizen 1+ goals

83%

Geoje Citizen 2+ goals

53%

Geoje Citizen 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Busan I Park (draw refunded)

72%

Geoje Citizen (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Busan I Park at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Geoje Citizen away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Busan I Park attack 3.00 + Geoje Citizen defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.88

Geoje Citizen attack 1.75 + Busan I Park defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Busan I Park scores more

60%

level

17%

Geoje Citizen scores more

23%

Busan I Park at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Busan I Park will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

65'

90+2'

90+4'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff