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Busaiteen vs Bahrain SC — Premier League 2019

Busaiteen
Busaiteen
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Bahrain SC
Bahrain SC
10/22/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Relegation RoundMadinat 'Isa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Busaiteen50%
×Draw23%
Bahrain SC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Busaiteen
1.76
Bahrain SC
1.23

Busaiteen creates 43% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 35 away

creates per match

Busaiteen
1.41
Bahrain SC
0.80

allows per match

Busaiteen
1.66
Bahrain SC
2.11

finishing

Busaiteen+0.00on par
Bahrain SC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Busaiteen ↓

Bahrain SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Busaiteen or draw
73%
Busaiteen or Bahrain SC
77%
Draw or Bahrain SC
50%

Winning margin

Busaiteen wins by 2+
27%
Bahrain SC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Busaiteen 1+ goals
83%
Busaiteen 2+ goals
52%
Busaiteen 3+ goals
26%
Bahrain SC 1+ goals
71%
Bahrain SC 2+ goals
35%
Bahrain SC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Busaiteen (draw refunded)
65%
Bahrain SC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Busaiteen at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.66 · 29 matches

Bahrain SC away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.11 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Busaiteen attack 1.41 + Bahrain SC defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.76

Bahrain SC attack 0.80 + Busaiteen defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Busaiteen scores more
50%
level
23%
Bahrain SC scores more
27%

Busaiteen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Busaiteen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Busaiteen 4–1 Bahrain SC

Busaiteen beat Bahrain SC 4-1 in Premier League on October 22, 2020.

The match was played at Madinat 'Isa Stadium in Manama.