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Busaiteen vs Al Najma — Premier League 2019

Busaiteen
Busaiteen
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Al Najma
Al Najma
3/13/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Al-Ahli Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Busaiteen39%
×Draw25%
Al Najma36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Busaiteen
1.45
Al Najma
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 63 away

creates per match

Busaiteen
1.41
Al Najma
1.10

allows per match

Busaiteen
1.66
Al Najma
1.49

finishing

Busaiteen+0.00on par
Al Najma+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Busaiteen ↓

Al Najma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Busaiteen or draw
64%
Busaiteen or Al Najma
75%
Draw or Al Najma
61%

Winning margin

Busaiteen wins by 2+
18%
Al Najma wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Busaiteen 1+ goals
77%
Busaiteen 2+ goals
42%
Busaiteen 3+ goals
18%
Al Najma 1+ goals
75%
Al Najma 2+ goals
40%
Al Najma 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Busaiteen (draw refunded)
52%
Al Najma (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Busaiteen at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.66 · 29 matches

Al Najma away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.49 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Busaiteen attack 1.41 + Al Najma defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.45

Al Najma attack 1.10 + Busaiteen defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Busaiteen scores more
39%
level
25%
Al Najma scores more
36%

Busaiteen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Busaiteen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Busaiteen vs Al Najma

Al Najma beat Busaiteen 2-0 in Premier League on March 13, 2020.

The match was played at Al-Ahli Stadium in Manama.