Busaiteen 2–2 Al-Hidd: Result & Stats

Busaiteen

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Al-Hidd

12/19/2023

Premier League · Round 9Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Busaiteen35%

×Draw25%

Al-Hidd39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BusaiteenExpected goals in this matchAl-Hidd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.44

Busaiteen

1.35

Al-Hidd

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 64 away

1.41

creates per match

1.22

1.66

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Busaiteen

1.41

Al-Hidd

1.22

allows per match

Busaiteen

1.66

Al-Hidd

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Busaiteen+0.00on par

Al-Hidd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Busaiteen ↓

Al-Hidd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Busaiteen or draw

61%

Busaiteen or Al-Hidd

75%

Draw or Al-Hidd

65%

Winning margin

Busaiteen wins by 2+

16%

Al-Hidd wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Busaiteen 1+ goals

74%

Busaiteen 2+ goals

39%

Busaiteen 3+ goals

15%

Al-Hidd 1+ goals

76%

Al-Hidd 2+ goals

42%

Al-Hidd 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Busaiteen (draw refunded)

47%

Al-Hidd (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Busaiteen at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.66 · 29 matches

Al-Hidd away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.30 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Busaiteen attack 1.41 + Al-Hidd defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.35

Al-Hidd attack 1.22 + Busaiteen defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Busaiteen scores more

35%

level

25%

Al-Hidd scores more

39%

Al-Hidd at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al-Hidd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff