Bury 3–0 Northampton: Result & Stats | League One

Bury

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Northampton

J. Vaughan 90+2', 3'

G. Miller 72'

4/22/2017

League One · Round 45Gigg Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bury68%

×Draw17%

Northampton15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BuryExpected goals in this matchNorthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

1.09

Bury

2.52

Northampton

1.09

Bury creates 131% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 99 away

3.25

creates per match

0.94

1.25

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Bury

3.25

Northampton

0.94

allows per match

Bury

1.25

Northampton

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bury+0.00on par

Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bury ↓

Northampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Bury or draw

85%

Bury or Northampton

83%

Draw or Northampton

32%

Winning margin

Bury wins by 2+

46%

Northampton wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Bury 1+ goals

92%

Bury 2+ goals

71%

Bury 3+ goals

45%

Northampton 1+ goals

66%

Northampton 2+ goals

30%

Northampton 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bury (draw refunded)

82%

Northampton (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bury at home — creates 3.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Northampton away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.79 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bury attack 3.25 + Northampton defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.52

Northampton attack 0.94 + Bury defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Bury scores more

68%

level

17%

Northampton scores more

15%

Bury at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Bury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

J. Vaughan↳ J. Murphy

46'

R. McDonald← N. Eardley

55'

Brendan Moloney

62'

K. Anderson← A. Revell

63'

G. Miller← T. Pope

72'

G. Miller

79'

H. Beautyman← B. Moloney

83'

S. Burgess← R. Lowe

90+3'

N. Cameron← J. Vaughan

90+2'

J. Vaughan

Possession

Shots

Statistics

BuryNorthampton

Overview

53%Possession47%

17Total Shots6

5Corners6

3Fouls7

Shots

17Total Shots6

5On Target2

8Off Target2

4Blocked2

8Inside Box3

9Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

3Fouls7

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1