Burundi 3–0 South Sudan: Result & Stats

Burundi

FT

3 – 0

South Sudan

6/10/2017

Africa Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 2Stade du Prince Louis Rwagasore (Bujumbura)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Burundi73%

×Draw19%

South Sudan8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurundiExpected goals in this matchSouth Sudan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.50

Burundi

2.00

South Sudan

0.50

Burundi creates 300% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.25

creates per match

0.00

1.00

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Burundi

1.25

South Sudan

0.00

allows per match

Burundi

1.00

South Sudan

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burundi+0.00on par

South Sudan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burundi ↓

South Sudan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Burundi or draw

92%

Burundi or South Sudan

81%

Draw or South Sudan

27%

Winning margin

Burundi wins by 2+

47%

South Sudan wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Burundi 1+ goals

86%

Burundi 2+ goals

59%

Burundi 3+ goals

32%

South Sudan 1+ goals

39%

South Sudan 2+ goals

9%

South Sudan 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Burundi (draw refunded)

90%

South Sudan (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burundi at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

South Sudan away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burundi attack 1.25 + South Sudan defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.00

South Sudan attack 0.00 + Burundi defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Burundi scores more

73%

level

19%

South Sudan scores more

8%

Burundi at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Burundi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff