Burundi 1–0 Guinea-Bissau: Result & Stats

Burundi

1 – 0

Guinea-Bissau

6/6/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies 3Stade Municipal de Berrechid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Burundi54%

×Draw27%

Guinea-Bissau19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurundiExpected goals in this matchGuinea-Bissau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.71

Burundi

1.41

Guinea-Bissau

0.71

Burundi creates 99% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

0.25

creates per match

0.43

1.00

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Burundi

0.25

Guinea-Bissau

0.43

allows per match

Burundi

1.00

Guinea-Bissau

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burundi+0.00on par

Guinea-Bissau+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burundi ↓

Guinea-Bissau →

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Burundi or draw

81%

Burundi or Guinea-Bissau

73%

Draw or Guinea-Bissau

46%

Winning margin

Burundi wins by 2+

27%

Guinea-Bissau wins by 2+

Team goals

Burundi 1+ goals

76%

Burundi 2+ goals

41%

Burundi 3+ goals

17%

Guinea-Bissau 1+ goals

51%

Guinea-Bissau 2+ goals

16%

Guinea-Bissau 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Burundi (draw refunded)

74%

Guinea-Bissau (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Burundi at home — creates 0.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Guinea-Bissau away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Burundi attack 0.25 + Guinea-Bissau defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.41

Guinea-Bissau attack 0.43 + Burundi defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Burundi scores more

54%

level

27%

Guinea-Bissau scores more

19%

Burundi at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Burundi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Burundi

Guinea-Bissau

Manager: P. Sangwa

Manager: Luís Boa Morte