Burton Albion 0–3 Sunderland: Result & Stats

Burton Albion

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Sunderland

C. Wyke 76'

L. Gooch 32'

G. Leadbitter 6'

2/20/2021

League One · Round 30Pirelli Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Burton Albion34%

×Draw27%

Sunderland39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Burton AlbionExpected goals in this matchSunderland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.30

Burton Albion

1.19

Sunderland

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 177 home / 86 away

1.29

creates per match

1.30

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Burton Albion

1.29

Sunderland

1.30

allows per match

Burton Albion

1.30

Sunderland

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burton Albion+0.00on par

Sunderland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Sunderland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw

61%

Burton Albion or Sunderland

73%

Draw or Sunderland

66%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+

14%

Sunderland wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals

70%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

33%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

12%

Sunderland 1+ goals

73%

Sunderland 2+ goals

37%

Sunderland 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

46%

Sunderland (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.30 · 177 matches

Sunderland away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.09 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.29 + Sunderland defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.19

Sunderland attack 1.30 + Burton Albion defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Burton Albion scores more

34%

level

27%

Sunderland scores more

39%

Sunderland at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

L. Gooch

Sunderland · M

8.0

Match Events

5'

Joshua Earl

6'

G. Leadbitter↳ A. McGeady

18'

32'

38'

52'

56'

56'

56'

62'

62'

63'

65'

66'

J. Scowen← G. Leadbitter

66'

C. Winchester← A. McGeady

67'

J. Jones← J. Vokins

70'

M. Fondop-Talum← L. Akins

76'

C. Wyke↳ J. Jones

78'

82'

85'

89'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurtonSunderland

Overview

34%Possession66%

15Total Shots17

7Corners5

13Fouls7

Shots

15Total Shots17

3On Target7

8Off Target6

4Blocked4

11Inside Box9

4Outside Box8

Passing

34%Possession66%

263Total Passes514

170Accurate Passes421

65%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls7

5Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

0Offsides2