Burton Albion vs Stockport County

Burton Albion

Preview

15:00

Stockport County

3/26/2027

League One · Round 37Pirelli Stadium

45%

Burton Albion

model favours

45%26%29%

Stockport County score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

54%

under 2.5 goals

50%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Burton Albion45%

×Draw26%

Stockport County29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Burton AlbionExpected goals in this matchStockport County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.08

Burton Albion

1.43

Stockport County

1.08

Burton Albion creates 32% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 15 away

1.28

creates per match

1.21

0.95

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Burton Albion

1.28

Stockport County

1.21

allows per match

Burton Albion

0.95

Stockport County

1.57

+0.01on par

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Burton Albion+0.01on par

Stockport County-0.08on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Stockport County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw

71%

Burton Albion or Stockport County

74%

Draw or Stockport County

55%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+

22%

Stockport County wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals

76%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

42%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

17%

Stockport County 1+ goals

66%

Stockport County 2+ goals

29%

Stockport County 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

61%

Stockport County (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.95 · 7 matches

Stockport County away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.57 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.28 + Stockport County defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.43

Stockport County attack 1.21 + Burton Albion defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Burton Albion scores more

45%

level

26%

Stockport County scores more

29%

Burton Albion at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Burton Albion score first in only 25% of matches
80% of Stockport County’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Stockport County have won 3 of the last 4 meetings
Both teams score in 70% of Stockport County’s matches
Burton Albion matches are rarely goalless — only 2.8% end 0-0
Burton Albion sit 17, Stockport County 4 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Burton Albion

Direct / counter-attacking

Stockport County

Balanced

43%Possession55%

65%Pass accuracy76%

9.9ShotsBiggest gap12.8

1.29xG1.35

Burton AlbionStockport County

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

1

Burton Albion

0

Draws

3

Stockport County

Avg goals: 3BTTS: 50%

3–01–21–20–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Albion

LLDDD

County

WLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff