Burton Albion 1–3 Northampton: Result & Stats

Burton Albion

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Northampton

L. Akins 90+2' (pen)

C. Lines 81'

H. Smith 67', 2'

11/21/2020

League One · Round 13Pirelli Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Burton Albion61%

×Draw22%

Northampton17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Burton AlbionExpected goals in this matchNorthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

0.90

Burton Albion

1.90

Northampton

0.90

Burton Albion creates 111% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.28

creates per match

0.85

0.95

allows per match

2.52

creates per match

Burton Albion

1.28

Northampton

0.85

allows per match

Burton Albion

0.95

Northampton

2.52

+0.01on par

finishing

-0.52scores less than expected

finishing

Burton Albion+0.01on par

Northampton-0.52scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Northampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw

83%

Burton Albion or Northampton

78%

Draw or Northampton

39%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+

36%

Northampton wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals

85%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

56%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

29%

Northampton 1+ goals

59%

Northampton 2+ goals

23%

Northampton 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

78%

Northampton (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.95 · 7 matches

Northampton away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.52 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.28 + Northampton defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 1.90

Northampton attack 0.85 + Burton Albion defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Burton Albion scores more

61%

level

22%

Northampton scores more

17%

Burton Albion at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

H. Smith

Northampton · F

8.9

Match Events

2'

H. Smith↳ S. Hoskins

21'

Indiana Vassilev

46'

C. Vernam← I. Vassilev

46'

S. Lawless← R. Edwards

53'

Caleb Chukwuemeka

65'

C. Lines← R. Holmes

67'

H. Smith↳ J. Sowerby

70'

M. Harriman← C. Chukwuemeka

77'

J. Powell← O. Gallacher

81'

C. Lines↳ M. Marshall

84'

B. Ashley-Seal← H. Smith

84'

C. Missilou← S. McWilliams

87'

T. Hewlett← C. Gilligan

88'

Stephen Quinn

90+2'

L. AkinsPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurtonNorthampton

Overview

62%Possession38%

6Total Shots11

8Corners3

20Fouls15

Shots

6Total Shots11

2On Target6

3Off Target4

1Blocked1

5Inside Box6

1Outside Box5

Passing

62%Possession38%

418Total Passes263

322Accurate Passes168

77%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

20Fouls15

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3