Burton Albion 3–0 Lincoln: Result & Stats

Burton Albion

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Lincoln

V. Adeboyejo 27' (pen)

J. Smith 14'

S. Hughes 5'

12/26/2022

League One · Round 23Pirelli Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Burton Albion37%

×Draw28%

Lincoln35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Burton AlbionExpected goals in this matchLincoln

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.17

Burton Albion

1.21

Lincoln

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

1.28

creates per match

1.38

0.95

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Burton Albion

1.28

Lincoln

1.38

allows per match

Burton Albion

0.95

Lincoln

1.13

+0.01on par

finishing

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

Burton Albion+0.01on par

Lincoln+0.25scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Lincoln →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw

65%

Burton Albion or Lincoln

72%

Draw or Lincoln

63%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+

16%

Lincoln wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals

70%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

34%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

12%

Lincoln 1+ goals

69%

Lincoln 2+ goals

33%

Lincoln 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

51%

Lincoln (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.95 · 7 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.28 + Lincoln defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Lincoln attack 1.38 + Burton Albion defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Burton Albion scores more

37%

level

28%

Lincoln scores more

35%

Burton Albion at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

S. Hughes

Burton Albion · D

7.9

Match Events

5'

S. Hughes↳ T. Hamer

14'

J. Smith↳ T. Hamer

27'

V. AdeboyejoPenalty

36'

B. House← J. Walsh

46'

L. Sørensen← M. Sanders

65'

72'

75'

87'

90+4'

M. Carayol← V. Adeboyejo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurtonLincoln

Overview

60%Possession40%

11Total Shots8

8Corners1

13Fouls8

Shots

11Total Shots8

5On Target2

4Off Target3

2Blocked3

9Inside Box4

2Outside Box4

Passing

60%Possession40%

379Total Passes260

240Accurate Passes119

63%Pass Accuracy46%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls8

0Yellow Cards1

4Offsides3