Burton Albion 1–2 Lincoln: Result & Stats

Burton Albion

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Lincoln

C. Shaughnessy 86'

A. Scully 50'

L. Fiorini 10'

9/25/2021

League One · Round 9Pirelli Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Burton Albion37%

×Draw28%

Lincoln35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Burton AlbionExpected goals in this matchLincoln

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.17

Burton Albion

1.21

Lincoln

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

1.28

creates per match

1.38

0.95

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Burton Albion

1.28

Lincoln

1.38

allows per match

Burton Albion

0.95

Lincoln

1.13

+0.01on par

finishing

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

Burton Albion+0.01on par

Lincoln+0.25scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Lincoln →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw

65%

Burton Albion or Lincoln

72%

Draw or Lincoln

63%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+

16%

Lincoln wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals

70%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

34%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

12%

Lincoln 1+ goals

69%

Lincoln 2+ goals

33%

Lincoln 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

51%

Lincoln (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.95 · 7 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.28 + Lincoln defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Lincoln attack 1.38 + Burton Albion defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Burton Albion scores more

37%

level

28%

Lincoln scores more

35%

Burton Albion at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

C. Shaughnessy

Burton Albion · D

7.6

Match Events

10'

L. Fiorini↳ E. Bishop

50'

59'

65'

72'

73'

M. Sanders← E. Bishop

76'

K. Hemmings← D. Jebbison

78'

Michael Bostwick

86'

C. Bramall← H. Adelakun

86'

C. Shaughnessy

87'

R. Longdon← D. NLundulu

90+5'

Lewis Montsma

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurtonLincoln

Overview

54%Possession46%

27Total Shots12

13Corners1

13Fouls5

Shots

27Total Shots12

6On Target5

10Off Target5

11Blocked2

17Inside Box7

10Outside Box5

Passing

54%Possession46%

462Total Passes415

352Accurate Passes296

76%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls5

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2