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Burton Albion vs Lincoln — League One 2018

Burton Albion
Burton Albion
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Lincoln
Lincoln
T. Eyoma 27'
4/20/2021League OneLeague One · Round 43Pirelli Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Burton Albion37%
×Draw28%
Lincoln35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burton Albion
1.21
Lincoln
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Burton Albion
1.28
Lincoln
1.38

allows per match

Burton Albion
0.95
Lincoln
1.13

finishing

Burton Albion+0.01on par
Lincoln+0.25scores more

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Lincoln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw
65%
Burton Albion or Lincoln
72%
Draw or Lincoln
63%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+
16%
Lincoln wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals
70%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
34%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
12%
Lincoln 1+ goals
69%
Lincoln 2+ goals
33%
Lincoln 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)
51%
Lincoln (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.95 · 7 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.28 + Lincoln defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Lincoln attack 1.38 + Burton Albion defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Burton Albion scores more
37%
level
28%
Lincoln scores more
35%

Burton Albion at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
T. EyomaLincolnLincoln · D
8.3

Match Events

27'
T. Eyoma↳ A. Edun
44'
T. Taylor← M. Mancienne
63'
R. Broom← L. Akins
63'
J. Powell← D. Rowe
72'
J. Grant← J. Jones
82'
M. Fondop-Talum← R. Edwards
83'
H. Anderson← M. Rogers
88'
Mike Fondop
88'
R. Howarth← B. Johnson
90'
Terry Taylor

Possession

43%Burton

Shots

11Burton

Pass accuracy

48%Burton

Statistics

BurtonLincoln
Overview
43%Possession57%
11Total Shots16
5Corners6
18Fouls7
Shots
11Total Shots16
2On Target3
7Off Target4
2Blocked9
2Inside Box9
9Outside Box7
Passing
43%Possession57%
371Total Passes497
259Accurate Passes381
70%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
18Fouls7
2Yellow Cards0
1Offsides2

League One: Burton Albion 0–1 Lincoln

Lincoln beat Burton Albion 1-0 in League One on April 20, 2021.

Goals: T. Eyoma (27').

Lincoln controlled possession (57%) and registered 16 shots to 11.

The match was played at Pirelli Stadium in Burton-upon-Trent, Staffordshire.