Burton Albion 0–3 Derby: Result & Stats

Burton Albion

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Derby

C. Washington 84'

C. Hourihane 78'

J. Collins 6'

8/12/2023

League One · Round 2Pirelli Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Burton Albion33%

×Draw28%

Derby39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Burton AlbionExpected goals in this matchDerby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.25

Burton Albion

1.12

Derby

1.25

Derby creates 12% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 9 away

1.12

creates per match

1.11

1.39

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Burton Albion

1.12

Derby

1.11

allows per match

Burton Albion

1.39

Derby

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burton Albion+0.00on par

Derby+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Derby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw

61%

Burton Albion or Derby

72%

Draw or Derby

67%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+

13%

Derby wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals

67%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

31%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

10%

Derby 1+ goals

71%

Derby 2+ goals

36%

Derby 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

46%

Derby (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

Derby away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.12 + Derby defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

Derby attack 1.11 + Burton Albion defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Burton Albion scores more

33%

level

28%

Derby scores more

39%

Derby at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

C. Hourihane

Derby · M

8.2

Match Events

2'

Steve Seddon

6'

J. Collins↳ C. Hourihane

45+2'

Nathaniel Mendez-Laing

58'

M. Bennett← J. Caprice

68'

Conor Hourihane

73'

B. Kamwa← R. Harper

78'

C. Hourihane↳ M. Bird

81'

C. Washington← N. Mendez-Laing

82'

M. Waghorn← C. Hourihane

83'

M. Carayol← S. Seddon

84'

C. Washington

87'

L. Thompson← J. Collins

90+6'

Eiran Joe Cashin

90+1'

C. Elder← C. Forsyth

90+1'

K. Wilson← J. Ward

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurtonDerby

Overview

59%Possession41%

14Total Shots8

6Corners2

12Fouls7

Shots

14Total Shots8

2On Target5

6Off Target2

6Blocked1

9Inside Box6

5Outside Box2

Passing

59%Possession41%

401Total Passes275

276Accurate Passes135

69%Pass Accuracy49%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls7

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides3