Burton Albion 2–0 Charlton: Result & Stats

Burton Albion

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Charlton

1/20/2024

League One · Round 29Pirelli Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 140+ matches

Burton Albion36%

×Draw27%

Charlton37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Burton AlbionExpected goals in this matchCharlton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.27

Burton Albion

1.25

Charlton

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 178 home / 140 away

1.28

creates per match

1.24

1.31

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Burton Albion

1.28

Charlton

1.24

allows per match

Burton Albion

1.31

Charlton

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burton Albion+0.00on par

Charlton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Charlton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw

63%

Burton Albion or Charlton

73%

Draw or Charlton

64%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+

16%

Charlton wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals

71%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

36%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

13%

Charlton 1+ goals

72%

Charlton 2+ goals

36%

Charlton 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

49%

Charlton (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.31 · 178 matches

Charlton away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.23 · 140 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.28 + Charlton defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

Charlton attack 1.24 + Burton Albion defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Burton Albion scores more

36%

level

27%

Charlton scores more

37%

Charlton at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff