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Burton Albion vs Bristol Rovers — League One 2018

Burton Albion
Burton Albion
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
10/5/2024League OneLeague One · Round 10Pirelli Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 133+ matches

Burton Albion44%
×Draw26%
Bristol Rovers30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burton Albion
1.43
Bristol Rovers
1.13

Burton Albion creates 27% more chances

Season form · 178 home / 133 away

creates per match

Burton Albion
1.28
Bristol Rovers
0.94

allows per match

Burton Albion
1.31
Bristol Rovers
1.58

finishing

Burton Albion+0.00on par
Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Bristol Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw
70%
Burton Albion or Bristol Rovers
74%
Draw or Bristol Rovers
56%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+
21%
Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals
76%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
42%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
17%
Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
68%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
31%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)
60%
Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.31 · 178 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.58 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.28 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.43

Bristol Rovers attack 0.94 + Burton Albion defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Burton Albion scores more
44%
level
26%
Bristol Rovers scores more
30%

Burton Albion at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Burton Albion vs Bristol Rovers

Bristol Rovers beat Burton Albion 3-1 in League One on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Pirelli Stadium in Burton-upon-Trent, Staffordshire.