Burton Albion 1–1 Bolton: Result & Stats

Burton Albion

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bolton

M. Helm 46'

D. Charles 58'

8/26/2023

League One · Round 5Pirelli Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Burton Albion39%

×Draw27%

Bolton34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Burton AlbionExpected goals in this matchBolton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.23

Burton Albion

1.34

Bolton

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

1.28

creates per match

1.51

0.95

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Burton Albion

1.28

Bolton

1.51

allows per match

Burton Albion

0.95

Bolton

1.41

+0.01on par

finishing

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

Burton Albion+0.01on par

Bolton-0.34scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Bolton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw

66%

Burton Albion or Bolton

73%

Draw or Bolton

61%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+

18%

Bolton wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals

74%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

39%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

15%

Bolton 1+ goals

71%

Bolton 2+ goals

35%

Bolton 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

54%

Bolton (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.95 · 7 matches

Bolton away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.41 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.28 + Bolton defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.34

Bolton attack 1.51 + Burton Albion defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Burton Albion scores more

39%

level

27%

Bolton scores more

34%

Burton Albion at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

J. Brayford

Burton Albion · D

7.7

Match Events

15'

Rekeem Harper

20'

Edmond-Paris Maghoma

44'

George Thomason

45+2'

J. Gordon← M. Bennett

46'

W. Forrester← Ricardo

46'

M. Helm

56'

Adedeji Oshilaja

57'

Max Crocombe

58'

D. Charles↳ K. Dempsey

72'

J. Sheehan← P. Maghoma

72'

C. Jerome← V. Adeboyejo

73'

Carlos Gomes← K. Dempsey

74'

Jake Caprice

78'

M. Carayol← R. Harper

82'

D. Nlundulu← D. Charles

84'

Jasper Moon

87'

Mustapha Carayol

90+1'

S. Seddon← J. Caprice

90+1'

K. Baah← B. Kamwa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurtonBolton

Overview

38%Possession62%

13Total Shots17

4Corners8

13Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots17

3On Target6

7Off Target5

3Blocked6

10Inside Box11

3Outside Box6

Passing

38%Possession62%

266Total Passes427

145Accurate Passes311

55%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls12

6Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2