Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bolton vs Burton Albion — League One 2018

Bolton
Bolton
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
1/1/2024League OneLeague One · Round 26Toughsheet Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Bolton51%
×Draw24%
Burton Albion25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolton
1.67
Burton Albion
1.09

Bolton creates 53% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 179 away

creates per match

Bolton
1.73
Burton Albion
1.09

allows per match

Bolton
1.09
Burton Albion
1.60

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par
Burton Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Bolton or draw
75%
Bolton or Burton Albion
76%
Draw or Burton Albion
49%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+
27%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals
81%
Bolton 2+ goals
50%
Bolton 3+ goals
23%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
66%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
30%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)
67%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.09 · 139 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.60 · 179 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.73 + Burton Albion defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.67

Burton Albion attack 1.09 + Bolton defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bolton scores more
51%
level
24%
Burton Albion scores more
25%

Bolton at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Bolton 1–0 Burton Albion

Bolton beat Burton Albion 1-0 in League One on January 1, 2024.

The match was played at Toughsheet Community Stadium in Bolton.