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Burton Albion vs Blackpool — League One 2018

Burton Albion
Burton Albion
Preview
15:00
Blackpool
Blackpool
1/9/2027League OneLeague One · Round 24Pirelli Stadium
Big match
51%
Burton Albion
model favours
51%26%23%

Burton Albion score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Burton Albion51%
×Draw26%
Blackpool23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burton Albion
1.52
Blackpool
0.94

Burton Albion creates 62% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

Burton Albion
1.28
Blackpool
0.94

allows per match

Burton Albion
0.95
Blackpool
1.75

finishing

Burton Albion+0.01on par
Blackpool+0.36scores more

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Blackpool →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw
77%
Burton Albion or Blackpool
74%
Draw or Blackpool
49%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+
26%
Blackpool wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals
78%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
45%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
20%
Blackpool 1+ goals
61%
Blackpool 2+ goals
24%
Blackpool 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)
68%
Blackpool (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.95 · 7 matches

Blackpool away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.75 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.28 + Blackpool defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.52

Blackpool attack 0.94 + Burton Albion defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Burton Albion scores more
51%
level
26%
Blackpool scores more
23%

Burton Albion at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Burton Albion matches are rarely goalless — only 2.8% end 0-0

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Burton Albion
Direct / counter-attacking
Blackpool
Balanced
43%Possession47%
64%Pass accuracyBiggest gap71%
10.1Shots10.9
1.31xG1.19
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Burton AlbionBlackpool

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Burton Albion
3
Draws
5
Blackpool
Avg goals: 1.9BTTS: 30%
0–11–01–10–30–4

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Albion
LLDDD
Blackpool
LWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Burton Albion vs Blackpool — Match Preview

Burton Albion face Blackpool on January 9, 2027 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Burton Albion host Blackpool at Pirelli Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.