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Blackpool vs Burton Albion — League One 2018

Blackpool
Blackpool
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
9/28/2024League OneLeague One · Round 8Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Blackpool48%
×Draw25%
Burton Albion27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackpool
1.56
Burton Albion
1.10

Blackpool creates 42% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 179 away

creates per match

Blackpool
1.51
Burton Albion
1.09

allows per match

Blackpool
1.10
Burton Albion
1.60

finishing

Blackpool+0.00on par
Burton Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw
73%
Blackpool or Burton Albion
75%
Draw or Burton Albion
52%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+
25%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals
79%
Blackpool 2+ goals
46%
Blackpool 3+ goals
21%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
67%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
30%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)
64%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.10 · 134 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.60 · 179 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.51 + Burton Albion defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.56

Burton Albion attack 1.09 + Blackpool defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Blackpool scores more
48%
level
25%
Burton Albion scores more
27%

Blackpool at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Blackpool 3–0 Burton Albion

Blackpool beat Burton Albion 3-0 in League One on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Bloomfield Road in Blackpool, Lancashire.