Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon — League One 2018
Burton Albion score first in only 25% of matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 7+ matches
Burton Albion51%
AFC Wimbledon24%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Burton Albion creates 59% more chances
Season form · 7 home / 11 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Burton Albion ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Burton Albion at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.95 · 7 matches
AFC Wimbledon away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.96 · 11 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Burton Albion attack 1.28 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.62
AFC Wimbledon attack 1.10 + Burton Albion defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.02
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Burton Albion at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Burton Albion matches are rarely goalless — only 2.8% end 0-0
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Style Matchup
Contrasting stylesHead-to-head
9 previous meetings
Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Lincoln
Cardiff
Bolton
Stockport County
Bradford
Stevenage
Luton
Plymouth
Huddersfield
Mansfield Town
Wycombe
Reading
Blackpool
Doncaster
Barnsley
WiganBurton Albion
PeterboroughAFC Wimbledon
Leyton Orient
Exeter City
Port Vale
Rotherham
NorthamptonIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Burton Albion host AFC Wimbledon on Tuesday, 1 September 2026 at 18:45. The match is part of the League One 2018/2019 season.
Burton Albion face AFC Wimbledon (League One)
League One returns with Burton Albion hosting AFC Wimbledon. Match starts September 1, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Burton Albion host AFC Wimbledon at Pirelli Stadium.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.