AFC Wimbledon vs Burton Albion — League One 2022
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 25+ matches
AFC Wimbledon40%
Burton Albion32%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
AFC Wimbledon creates 14% more chances
Season form · 25 home / 96 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under56
- Over44
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
AFC Wimbledon ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.32 · 25 matches
Burton Albion away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.54 · 96 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
AFC Wimbledon attack 1.04 + Burton Albion defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.29
Burton Albion attack 0.94 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.13
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
AFC Wimbledon at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "AFC Wimbledon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
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WiganBurton Albion
PeterboroughAFC Wimbledon
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NorthamptonIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
AFC Wimbledon host Burton Albion on Tuesday, 9 March 2021 at 19:00. The match is part of the League One 2022/2023 season.
League One: AFC Wimbledon 0–1 Burton Albion
Burton Albion beat AFC Wimbledon 1-0 in League One on March 9, 2021.
Goals: M. Bostwick (59').
AFC Wimbledon controlled possession (60%) and registered 2 shots to 4.
The match was played at Plough Lane in London.