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Bursaspor vs Vanspor FK — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Bursaspor
Bursaspor
Pens
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Vanspor FK
Vanspor FK
12/4/2024Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundYüzüncü Yıl Atatürk Sütaş Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Bursaspor77%
×Draw14%
Vanspor FK9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bursaspor
2.82
Vanspor FK
0.85

Bursaspor creates 232% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Bursaspor
2.50
Vanspor FK
0.57

allows per match

Bursaspor
1.13
Vanspor FK
3.14

finishing

Bursaspor+0.00on par
Vanspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bursaspor ↓

Vanspor FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Bursaspor or draw
91%
Bursaspor or Vanspor FK
86%
Draw or Vanspor FK
23%

Winning margin

Bursaspor wins by 2+
57%
Vanspor FK wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Bursaspor 1+ goals
94%
Bursaspor 2+ goals
77%
Bursaspor 3+ goals
52%
Vanspor FK 1+ goals
57%
Vanspor FK 2+ goals
21%
Vanspor FK 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bursaspor (draw refunded)
90%
Vanspor FK (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bursaspor at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Vanspor FK away — creates 0.57, concedes 3.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bursaspor attack 2.50 + Vanspor FK defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.82

Vanspor FK attack 0.57 + Bursaspor defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Bursaspor scores more
77%
level
14%
Vanspor FK scores more
9%

Bursaspor at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Bursaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bursaspor vs Vanspor FK

Vanspor FK beat Bursaspor 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on December 4, 2024.

The match was played at Yüzüncü Yıl Atatürk Sütaş Stadyumu in Bursa.