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Bursaspor vs Kırşehir Belediyespor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Bursaspor
Bursaspor
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kırşehir Belediyespor
Kırşehir Belediyespor
11/30/2021Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundBitci Timsah Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Bursaspor74%
×Draw16%
Kırşehir Belediyespor10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bursaspor
2.50
Kırşehir Belediyespor
0.81

Bursaspor creates 209% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Bursaspor
2.50
Kırşehir Belediyespor
0.50

allows per match

Bursaspor
1.13
Kırşehir Belediyespor
2.50

finishing

Bursaspor+0.00on par
Kırşehir Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bursaspor ↓

Kırşehir Belediyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Bursaspor or draw
90%
Bursaspor or Kırşehir Belediyespor
84%
Draw or Kırşehir Belediyespor
26%

Winning margin

Bursaspor wins by 2+
51%
Kırşehir Belediyespor wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Bursaspor 1+ goals
92%
Bursaspor 2+ goals
71%
Bursaspor 3+ goals
45%
Kırşehir Belediyespor 1+ goals
56%
Kırşehir Belediyespor 2+ goals
19%
Kırşehir Belediyespor 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bursaspor (draw refunded)
88%
Kırşehir Belediyespor (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bursaspor at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Kırşehir Belediyespor away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bursaspor attack 2.50 + Kırşehir Belediyespor defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.50

Kırşehir Belediyespor attack 0.50 + Bursaspor defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Bursaspor scores more
74%
level
16%
Kırşehir Belediyespor scores more
10%

Bursaspor at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Bursaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bursaspor vs Kırşehir Belediyespor

Bursaspor and Kırşehir Belediyespor drew 1-1 in Türkiye Kupası on November 30, 2021.

The match was played at Bitci Timsah Park in Bursa.