Bursaspor 0–1 Beykoz Anadolu: Result & Stats

Bursaspor

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Beykoz Anadolu

F. Ezeh 87'

2/15/2022

1. Lig · Round 25Bitci Timsah Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Bursaspor43%

×Draw26%

Beykoz Anadolu30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BursasporExpected goals in this matchBeykoz Anadolu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.16

Bursaspor

1.44

Beykoz Anadolu

1.16

Bursaspor creates 24% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 69 away

1.42

creates per match

1.13

1.19

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Bursaspor

1.42

Beykoz Anadolu

1.13

allows per match

Bursaspor

1.19

Beykoz Anadolu

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bursaspor+0.00on par

Beykoz Anadolu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bursaspor ↓

Beykoz Anadolu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bursaspor or draw

70%

Bursaspor or Beykoz Anadolu

74%

Draw or Beykoz Anadolu

57%

Winning margin

Bursaspor wins by 2+

21%

Beykoz Anadolu wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bursaspor 1+ goals

76%

Bursaspor 2+ goals

42%

Bursaspor 3+ goals

18%

Beykoz Anadolu 1+ goals

69%

Beykoz Anadolu 2+ goals

32%

Beykoz Anadolu 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bursaspor (draw refunded)

59%

Beykoz Anadolu (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bursaspor at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.19 · 53 matches

Beykoz Anadolu away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.46 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bursaspor attack 1.42 + Beykoz Anadolu defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.44

Beykoz Anadolu attack 1.13 + Bursaspor defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bursaspor scores more

43%

level

26%

Beykoz Anadolu scores more

30%

Bursaspor at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bursaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

E. Koyuncu

Beykoz Anadolu · G

8.9

Match Events

-5'

15'

26'

45+3'

46'

49'

61'

67'

68'

70'

71'

71'

80'

V. Temel← N. Ələsgərov

80'

M. Uğurlu← O. Atasayar

82'

87'

90+1'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BursasporBeykoz

Overview

67%Possession33%

26Total Shots11

8Corners3

19Fouls7

Shots

26Total Shots11

8On Target3

9Off Target5

9Blocked3

16Inside Box3

10Outside Box8

Passing

67%Possession33%

556Total Passes283

476Accurate Passes187

86%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

2Saves9

Discipline

19Fouls7

3Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards2

1Offsides0

1. Lig: Bursaspor 0–1 Beykoz Anadolu

Beykoz Anadolu beat Bursaspor 1-0 in 1. Lig on February 15, 2022.

Goals: F. Ezeh (87').

Bursaspor controlled possession (67%) and registered 26 shots to 11.

The match was played at Bitci Timsah Park in Bursa.

Bursaspor vs Beykoz Anadolu — 1. Lig 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

1. Lig: Bursaspor 0–1 Beykoz Anadolu