Bursaspor vs Ankaraspor — League #205 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 5+ matches
Bursaspor47%
Ankaraspor27%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Bursaspor creates 40% more chances
Season form · 5 home / 11 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Bursaspor ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Bursaspor at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches
Ankaraspor away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Bursaspor attack 1.00 + Ankaraspor defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.46
Ankaraspor attack 1.09 + Bursaspor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 47%?"
Bursaspor at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 47% does not mean "Bursaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Güzide Gebzespor
Adana 01 FKAnkaraspor
Mardin 1969
Elazığspor
Ankaragücü
Isparta 32 Spor
Muğlaspor
Menemen FK
Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor
Arnavutköy Belediyespor
68 Aksaray Belediyespor
Aliağa FAŞ
Muş Sport Klübü
Kastamonuspor
24 Erzincanspor
FethiyesporBursaspor
Somaspor
Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı
İskenderunspor
Erbaaspor
1461 Trabzon FK
Karaman FK
Kırklarelispor
Beykoz Anadolu
Karacabey Belediyespor
Batman Petrolspor
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
Ankara Demirspor
Şanlıurfaspor
Bucaspor 1928
Kepezspor
İnegölspor
Yeni Malatyaspor
Altınordu
AdanasporIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Bursaspor host Ankaraspor on Sunday, 19 March 2023 at 11:00. The match is part of the League #205 2026/2027 season.
Bursaspor 0 – 1 Ankaraspor
Ankaraspor beat Bursaspor 1-0 in League #205 on March 19, 2023.
Goals: B. Karadağ (84').
The match was played at Bursa Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu in Bursa.