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Bursaspor vs Akhisarspor — 1. Lig 2018

Bursaspor
Bursaspor
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Akhisarspor
Akhisarspor
2/28/20211. Lig1. Lig · Round 24Bursa Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Bursaspor48%
×Draw25%
Akhisarspor27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bursaspor
1.63
Akhisarspor
1.17

Bursaspor creates 39% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 35 away

creates per match

Bursaspor
1.42
Akhisarspor
1.14

allows per match

Bursaspor
1.19
Akhisarspor
1.83

finishing

Bursaspor+0.00on par
Akhisarspor+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bursaspor ↓

Akhisarspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Bursaspor or draw
73%
Bursaspor or Akhisarspor
75%
Draw or Akhisarspor
52%

Winning margin

Bursaspor wins by 2+
25%
Akhisarspor wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bursaspor 1+ goals
80%
Bursaspor 2+ goals
48%
Bursaspor 3+ goals
22%
Akhisarspor 1+ goals
69%
Akhisarspor 2+ goals
33%
Akhisarspor 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bursaspor (draw refunded)
64%
Akhisarspor (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bursaspor at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.19 · 53 matches

Akhisarspor away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.83 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bursaspor attack 1.42 + Akhisarspor defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.63

Akhisarspor attack 1.14 + Bursaspor defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bursaspor scores more
48%
level
25%
Akhisarspor scores more
27%

Bursaspor at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bursaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Bursaspor 3–2 Akhisarspor

Bursaspor beat Akhisarspor 3-2 in 1. Lig on February 28, 2021.

The match was played at Bursa Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu in Bursa.