Bursa Yıldırımspor 1–1 Çankaya FK: Result & Stats

Bursa Yıldırımspor

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Çankaya FK

E. Senturk 88'

T. Aksu-Berk 27'

1/18/2026

League #552 · Group 1 - 17Minareli Çavuş Spor Tesisleri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bursa Yıldırımspor34%

×Draw28%

Çankaya FK38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bursa YıldırımsporExpected goals in this matchÇankaya FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.23

Bursa Yıldırımspor

1.16

Çankaya FK

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 19 away

1.00

creates per match

1.21

1.25

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Bursa Yıldırımspor

1.00

Çankaya FK

1.21

allows per match

Bursa Yıldırımspor

1.25

Çankaya FK

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bursa Yıldırımspor+0.00on par

Çankaya FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bursa Yıldırımspor ↓

Çankaya FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Bursa Yıldırımspor or draw

62%

Bursa Yıldırımspor or Çankaya FK

72%

Draw or Çankaya FK

66%

Winning margin

Bursa Yıldırımspor wins by 2+

14%

Çankaya FK wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Bursa Yıldırımspor 1+ goals

69%

Bursa Yıldırımspor 2+ goals

32%

Bursa Yıldırımspor 3+ goals

11%

Çankaya FK 1+ goals

71%

Çankaya FK 2+ goals

35%

Çankaya FK 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Bursa Yıldırımspor (draw refunded)

48%

Çankaya FK (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bursa Yıldırımspor at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Çankaya FK away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bursa Yıldırımspor attack 1.00 + Çankaya FK defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.16

Çankaya FK attack 1.21 + Bursa Yıldırımspor defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bursa Yıldırımspor scores more

34%

level

28%

Çankaya FK scores more

38%

Çankaya FK at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Çankaya FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

T. Aksu-Berk

45+1'

Y. Tekin

45+1'

Y. Tekin

88'

E. Senturk

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff