Bursa Yıldırımspor 2–1 Balıkesirspor

Bursa Yıldırımspor

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Balıkesirspor

G. Erdöl 90+4', 37'

S. Kurnaz 90+2' (pen)

9/9/2023

League #1027 · Group 4 - 1Minareli Çavuş Spor Tesisleri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bursa Yıldırımspor31%

×Draw24%

Balıkesirspor45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bursa YıldırımsporExpected goals in this matchBalıkesirspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.67

Bursa Yıldırımspor

1.33

Balıkesirspor

1.67

Balıkesirspor creates 26% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

2.33

1.00

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Bursa Yıldırımspor

1.00

Balıkesirspor

2.33

allows per match

Bursa Yıldırımspor

1.00

Balıkesirspor

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bursa Yıldırımspor+0.00on par

Balıkesirspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bursa Yıldırımspor ↓

Balıkesirspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Bursa Yıldırımspor or draw

55%

Bursa Yıldırımspor or Balıkesirspor

76%

Draw or Balıkesirspor

69%

Winning margin

Bursa Yıldırımspor wins by 2+

13%

Balıkesirspor wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Bursa Yıldırımspor 1+ goals

74%

Bursa Yıldırımspor 2+ goals

38%

Bursa Yıldırımspor 3+ goals

15%

Balıkesirspor 1+ goals

81%

Balıkesirspor 2+ goals

50%

Balıkesirspor 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Bursa Yıldırımspor (draw refunded)

40%

Balıkesirspor (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bursa Yıldırımspor at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Balıkesirspor away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bursa Yıldırımspor attack 1.00 + Balıkesirspor defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Balıkesirspor attack 2.33 + Bursa Yıldırımspor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bursa Yıldırımspor scores more

31%

level

24%

Balıkesirspor scores more

45%

Balıkesirspor at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Balıkesirspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

G. Erdöl

46'

B. Aydoğdu← B. Tosun

64'

H. Demirci← E. Kaya

69'

A. Akgün← A. Adıyaman

79'

E. Kara← Ç. Özel

87'

F. Uslu← B. Gençal

90+2'

S. KurnazPenalty

90+4'

G. Erdöl

Bursa

Balıkesirspor

1

5

3

19

22

8

7

16

▼

Tosun

10

⚽

Kurnaz

20

Avcı

13

▼

13

45

44

90

3

8

6

10

▼

Gençal

7

▼

Özel

11

▼

Kaya

9

⚽2

Erdöl

Manager: M. Gündoğdu

64'▲H. Demirci←▼E. Kaya

79'▲E. Kara←▼Ç. Özel

87'▲F. Uslu←▼B. Gençal

Bursa Yıldırımspor substitutes

19Demirci36Kara5Uslu1Babat12Karataş16Hanlı52Çat54Keklik88Çakmak

Manager: R. Çetin

46'▲B. Aydoğdu←▼B. Tosun

69'▲A. Akgün←▼A. Adıyaman

Balıkesirspor substitutes

6Aydoğdu11Akgün25Davran94Çolak44Canel24Göroğlu61Bingül23Türkmen43Sarıbaş99Akçaoğlu