Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Burriana vs Silla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Burriana
Burriana
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Silla
Silla
11/5/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 9Camp de Futbol Joan B. Planelles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Burriana45%
×Draw27%
Silla28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burriana
1.40
Silla
1.03

Burriana creates 36% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 78 away

creates per match

Burriana
1.00
Silla
1.00

allows per match

Burriana
1.06
Silla
1.79

finishing

Burriana+0.00on par
Silla+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burriana ↓

Silla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Burriana or draw
72%
Burriana or Silla
73%
Draw or Silla
55%

Winning margin

Burriana wins by 2+
22%
Silla wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Burriana 1+ goals
75%
Burriana 2+ goals
41%
Burriana 3+ goals
17%
Silla 1+ goals
64%
Silla 2+ goals
28%
Silla 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Burriana (draw refunded)
62%
Silla (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burriana at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Silla away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.79 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burriana attack 1.00 + Silla defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.40

Silla attack 1.00 + Burriana defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Burriana scores more
45%
level
27%
Silla scores more
28%

Burriana at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Burriana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Burriana 2–0 Silla

Burriana beat Silla 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Camp de Futbol Joan B. Planelles in Borriana.