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Burriana vs Castellón II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Burriana
Burriana
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Castellón II
Castellón II
12/3/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 13Camp de Futbol Joan B. Planelles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Burriana39%
×Draw28%
Castellón II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burriana
1.27
Castellón II
1.14

Burriana creates 11% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 67 away

creates per match

Burriana
1.00
Castellón II
1.22

allows per match

Burriana
1.06
Castellón II
1.54

finishing

Burriana+0.00on par
Castellón II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burriana ↓

Castellón II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Burriana or draw
67%
Burriana or Castellón II
72%
Draw or Castellón II
61%

Winning margin

Burriana wins by 2+
17%
Castellón II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Burriana 1+ goals
72%
Burriana 2+ goals
36%
Burriana 3+ goals
14%
Castellón II 1+ goals
68%
Castellón II 2+ goals
32%
Castellón II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Burriana (draw refunded)
54%
Castellón II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burriana at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Castellón II away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.54 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burriana attack 1.00 + Castellón II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.27

Castellón II attack 1.22 + Burriana defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Burriana scores more
39%
level
28%
Castellón II scores more
33%

Burriana at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Burriana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Burriana vs Castellón II

Castellón II beat Burriana 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Camp de Futbol Joan B. Planelles in Borriana.