Burriana 1–2 Atzeneta: Result & Stats

Burriana

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Atzeneta

2/11/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 20Camp de Futbol Joan B. Planelles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Burriana31%

×Draw31%

Atzeneta38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurrianaExpected goals in this matchAtzeneta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.08

Burriana

0.94

Atzeneta

1.08

Atzeneta creates 15% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 98 away

1.00

creates per match

1.11

1.06

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Burriana

1.00

Atzeneta

1.11

allows per match

Burriana

1.06

Atzeneta

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burriana+0.00on par

Atzeneta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burriana ↓

Atzeneta →

0–013%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Burriana or draw

62%

Burriana or Atzeneta

69%

Draw or Atzeneta

69%

Winning margin

Burriana wins by 2+

11%

Atzeneta wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Burriana 1+ goals

61%

Burriana 2+ goals

24%

Burriana 3+ goals

Atzeneta 1+ goals

66%

Atzeneta 2+ goals

29%

Atzeneta 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Burriana (draw refunded)

45%

Atzeneta (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Burriana at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Atzeneta away — creates 1.11, concedes 0.87 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Burriana attack 1.00 + Atzeneta defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.94

Atzeneta attack 1.11 + Burriana defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Burriana scores more

31%

level

31%

Atzeneta scores more

38%

Atzeneta at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atzeneta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff