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Burreli vs Turbina Cërrik — 1st Division 2019

Burreli
Burreli
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Turbina Cërrik
Turbina Cërrik
5/7/20231st Division1st Division · Round 25Stadiumi Liri Ballabani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Burreli56%
×Draw26%
Turbina Cërrik18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burreli
1.52
Turbina Cërrik
0.72

Burreli creates 111% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 52 away

creates per match

Burreli
1.13
Turbina Cërrik
0.83

allows per match

Burreli
0.61
Turbina Cërrik
1.92

finishing

Burreli+0.00on par
Turbina Cërrik+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burreli ↓

Turbina Cërrik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Burreli or draw
82%
Burreli or Turbina Cërrik
74%
Draw or Turbina Cërrik
44%

Winning margin

Burreli wins by 2+
30%
Turbina Cërrik wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Burreli 1+ goals
78%
Burreli 2+ goals
45%
Burreli 3+ goals
20%
Turbina Cërrik 1+ goals
51%
Turbina Cërrik 2+ goals
16%
Turbina Cërrik 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Burreli (draw refunded)
76%
Turbina Cërrik (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burreli at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.61 · 104 matches

Turbina Cërrik away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.92 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burreli attack 1.13 + Turbina Cërrik defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.52

Turbina Cërrik attack 0.83 + Burreli defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Burreli scores more
56%
level
26%
Turbina Cërrik scores more
18%

Burreli at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Burreli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Burreli vs Turbina Cërrik

Burreli beat Turbina Cërrik 4-1 in 1st Division on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi Liri Ballabani in Burreli.