Burreli 1–2 Korabi Peshkopi: Result & Stats

Burreli

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Korabi Peshkopi

2/17/2025

1st Division · Round 23Stadiumi Liri Ballabani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Burreli46%

×Draw30%

Korabi Peshkopi24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurreliExpected goals in this matchKorabi Peshkopi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.77

Burreli

1.21

Korabi Peshkopi

0.77

Burreli creates 57% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 103 away

1.13

creates per match

0.93

0.61

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Burreli

1.13

Korabi Peshkopi

0.93

allows per match

Burreli

0.61

Korabi Peshkopi

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burreli+0.00on par

Korabi Peshkopi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burreli ↓

Korabi Peshkopi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Burreli or draw

76%

Burreli or Korabi Peshkopi

70%

Draw or Korabi Peshkopi

54%

Winning margin

Burreli wins by 2+

21%

Korabi Peshkopi wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Burreli 1+ goals

70%

Burreli 2+ goals

34%

Burreli 3+ goals

12%

Korabi Peshkopi 1+ goals

54%

Korabi Peshkopi 2+ goals

18%

Korabi Peshkopi 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Burreli (draw refunded)

66%

Korabi Peshkopi (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burreli at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.61 · 104 matches

Korabi Peshkopi away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.29 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burreli attack 1.13 + Korabi Peshkopi defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Korabi Peshkopi attack 0.93 + Burreli defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Burreli scores more

46%

level

30%

Korabi Peshkopi scores more

24%

Burreli at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Burreli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff