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Burreli vs Besa Kavajë — 1st Division 2019

Burreli
Burreli
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Besa Kavajë
Besa Kavajë
1/11/20251st Division1st Division · Round 18Arena Egnatia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Burreli45%
×Draw28%
Besa Kavajë26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burreli
1.29
Besa Kavajë
0.91

Burreli creates 42% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 100 away

creates per match

Burreli
1.13
Besa Kavajë
1.20

allows per match

Burreli
0.61
Besa Kavajë
1.46

finishing

Burreli+0.00on par
Besa Kavajë+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burreli ↓

Besa Kavajë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Burreli or draw
74%
Burreli or Besa Kavajë
72%
Draw or Besa Kavajë
55%

Winning margin

Burreli wins by 2+
21%
Besa Kavajë wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Burreli 1+ goals
72%
Burreli 2+ goals
37%
Burreli 3+ goals
14%
Besa Kavajë 1+ goals
60%
Besa Kavajë 2+ goals
23%
Besa Kavajë 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Burreli (draw refunded)
63%
Besa Kavajë (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burreli at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.61 · 104 matches

Besa Kavajë away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.46 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burreli attack 1.13 + Besa Kavajë defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.29

Besa Kavajë attack 1.20 + Burreli defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Burreli scores more
45%
level
28%
Besa Kavajë scores more
26%

Burreli at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Burreli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Burreli vs Besa Kavajë

Burreli and Besa Kavajë drew 1-1 in 1st Division on January 11, 2025.

The match was played at Arena Egnatia in Rrogozhinë.