Burntisland Shipyard 1–5 Lothian Hutchison

Burntisland Shipyard

1 – 5

Lothian Hutchison

8/27/2022

FA Cup · 1st Preliminary RoundRecreation Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Burntisland Shipyard30%

×Draw21%

Lothian Hutchison48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Burntisland ShipyardExpected goals in this matchLothian Hutchison

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

2.09

Burntisland Shipyard

1.63

Lothian Hutchison

2.09

Lothian Hutchison creates 28% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

1.25

creates per match

1.44

2.75

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Burntisland Shipyard

1.25

Lothian Hutchison

1.44

allows per match

Burntisland Shipyard

2.75

Lothian Hutchison

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burntisland Shipyard+0.00on par

Lothian Hutchison+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burntisland Shipyard ↓

Lothian Hutchison →

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Burntisland Shipyard or draw

52%

Burntisland Shipyard or Lothian Hutchison

79%

Draw or Lothian Hutchison

70%

Winning margin

Burntisland Shipyard wins by 2+

15%

Lothian Hutchison wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Burntisland Shipyard 1+ goals

80%

Burntisland Shipyard 2+ goals

48%

Burntisland Shipyard 3+ goals

22%

Lothian Hutchison 1+ goals

88%

Lothian Hutchison 2+ goals

62%

Lothian Hutchison 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Burntisland Shipyard (draw refunded)

39%

Lothian Hutchison (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Burntisland Shipyard at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Lothian Hutchison away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Burntisland Shipyard attack 1.25 + Lothian Hutchison defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Lothian Hutchison attack 1.44 + Burntisland Shipyard defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Burntisland Shipyard scores more

30%

level

21%

Lothian Hutchison scores more

48%

Lothian Hutchison at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lothian Hutchison will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff