Burntisland Shipyard 1–4 Irvine Meadow

Burntisland Shipyard

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Irvine Meadow

Unknown 74'

Kennedy 38'

McDowall 24'

9/28/2024

FA Cup · 1st RoundRecreation Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Burntisland Shipyard24%

×Draw19%

Irvine Meadow57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Burntisland ShipyardExpected goals in this matchIrvine Meadow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

2.54

Burntisland Shipyard

1.63

Irvine Meadow

2.54

Irvine Meadow creates 56% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.25

creates per match

2.33

2.75

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Burntisland Shipyard

1.25

Irvine Meadow

2.33

allows per match

Burntisland Shipyard

2.75

Irvine Meadow

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burntisland Shipyard+0.00on par

Irvine Meadow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burntisland Shipyard ↓

Irvine Meadow →

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–43%

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Burntisland Shipyard or draw

43%

Burntisland Shipyard or Irvine Meadow

81%

Draw or Irvine Meadow

76%

Winning margin

Burntisland Shipyard wins by 2+

11%

Irvine Meadow wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Burntisland Shipyard 1+ goals

80%

Burntisland Shipyard 2+ goals

48%

Burntisland Shipyard 3+ goals

22%

Irvine Meadow 1+ goals

92%

Irvine Meadow 2+ goals

72%

Irvine Meadow 3+ goals

46%

Draw no bet

Burntisland Shipyard (draw refunded)

30%

Irvine Meadow (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Burntisland Shipyard at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Irvine Meadow away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Burntisland Shipyard attack 1.25 + Irvine Meadow defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Irvine Meadow attack 2.33 + Burntisland Shipyard defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Burntisland Shipyard scores more

24%

level

19%

Irvine Meadow scores more

57%

Irvine Meadow at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Irvine Meadow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

McDowall

38'

Kennedy

74'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff