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Burnley W vs Sunderland W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Burnley W
Burnley W
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sunderland W
Sunderland W
4/11/2021FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundRuby Civil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Burnley W48%
×Draw19%
Sunderland W33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley W
2.63
Sunderland W
2.20

Burnley W creates 20% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 7 away

creates per match

Burnley W
4.40
Sunderland W
3.00

allows per match

Burnley W
1.40
Sunderland W
0.86

finishing

Burnley W+0.00on par
Sunderland W+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley W ↓

Sunderland W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Burnley W or draw
67%
Burnley W or Sunderland W
81%
Draw or Sunderland W
52%

Winning margin

Burnley W wins by 2+
29%
Sunderland W wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Burnley W 1+ goals
93%
Burnley W 2+ goals
73%
Burnley W 3+ goals
48%
Sunderland W 1+ goals
89%
Sunderland W 2+ goals
64%
Sunderland W 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Burnley W (draw refunded)
59%
Sunderland W (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley W at home — creates 4.40, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Sunderland W away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley W attack 4.40 + Sunderland W defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 2.63

Sunderland W attack 3.00 + Burnley W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Burnley W scores more
48%
level
19%
Sunderland W scores more
33%

Burnley W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Burnley W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Burnley W vs Sunderland W

Burnley W and Sunderland W drew 0-0 in FA Women's Cup on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Ruby Civil Arena in Padiham, Lancashire.