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Burnley W vs Norwich City — FA Women's Cup 2019

Burnley W
Burnley W
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Norwich City
Norwich City
11/23/2025FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundLancashire County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Burnley W70%
×Draw15%
Norwich City15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley W
3.20
Norwich City
1.48

Burnley W creates 116% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 7 away

creates per match

Burnley W
4.40
Norwich City
1.57

allows per match

Burnley W
1.40
Norwich City
2.00

finishing

Burnley W+0.00on par
Norwich City+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley W ↓

Norwich City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Burnley W or draw
85%
Burnley W or Norwich City
85%
Draw or Norwich City
30%

Winning margin

Burnley W wins by 2+
51%
Norwich City wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Burnley W 1+ goals
96%
Burnley W 2+ goals
82%
Burnley W 3+ goals
60%
Norwich City 1+ goals
77%
Norwich City 2+ goals
43%
Norwich City 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Burnley W (draw refunded)
82%
Norwich City (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley W at home — creates 4.40, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Norwich City away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley W attack 4.40 + Norwich City defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 3.20

Norwich City attack 1.57 + Burnley W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Burnley W scores more
70%
level
15%
Norwich City scores more
15%

Burnley W at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Burnley W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Burnley W vs Norwich City

Burnley W beat Norwich City 4-0 in FA Women's Cup on November 23, 2025.

The match was played at Lancashire County Ground in Leyland.