Burnley W 1–0 Fylde W: Result & Stats

Burnley W

AET

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fylde W

4/4/2021

FA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundRuby Civil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Burnley W66%

×Draw15%

Fylde W19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Burnley WExpected goals in this matchFylde W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.45

1.89

Burnley W

3.45

Fylde W

1.89

Burnley W creates 83% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 8 away

4.40

creates per match

2.38

1.40

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Burnley W

4.40

Fylde W

2.38

allows per match

Burnley W

1.40

Fylde W

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burnley W+0.00on par

Fylde W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley W ↓

Fylde W →

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–02%

1–13%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–03%

4–16%

4–25%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

97%3%2.5

89%11%3.5

76%24%4.5

59%41%

Double chance

Burnley W or draw

81%

Burnley W or Fylde W

85%

Draw or Fylde W

34%

Winning margin

Burnley W wins by 2+

47%

Fylde W wins by 2+

Team goals

Burnley W 1+ goals

97%

Burnley W 2+ goals

85%

Burnley W 3+ goals

65%

Fylde W 1+ goals

85%

Fylde W 2+ goals

56%

Fylde W 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Burnley W (draw refunded)

78%

Fylde W (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

79%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Burnley W at home — creates 4.40, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Fylde W away — creates 2.38, concedes 2.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Burnley W attack 4.40 + Fylde W defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 3.45

Fylde W attack 2.38 + Burnley W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 66%?"

Burnley W scores more

66%

level

15%

Fylde W scores more

19%

Burnley W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Burnley W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff